Chapter 46: Diplomatic Efforts
Compared to Japan's Foreign Minister Mutsu Munemitsu's extensive diplomatic efforts, Nicholas's strategies were simple and limited.
Firstly, Nicholas unified domestic opinions and redirected Russia's national power to apply pressure on the Japanese. Secondly, he sought to ally with Germany and France, promising them attractive benefits.
In dealing with Germany, Nicholas planned to go beyond mere diplomatic channels. Since Kaiser Wilhelm II was persistently bombarding him with "sweet words," Nicholas decided to use letters to persuade Wilhelm II.
"We will suffer significant losses if Japan takes Port Arthur, but Russia's naval power in East Asia is not yet sufficient to make the Japanese fully submit. I need your support, Willy."
Nicholas deliberately framed his letters as "weak and helpless," elevating Wilhelm II as a "friend who helps Russia," and emphasized that he would repay this friendship.
It was easy to sway his cousin Willy, who was sensitive and insecure. When Nicholas referred to him as a "great cousin helping me," Willy was almost ecstatic with the sense of importance it gave him.
Wilhelm II also saw Nicholas's plea as a golden opportunity to restore relations with Russia.
However, the German Foreign Ministry was concerned that Wilhelm II's unilateral interventions not only lacked coordination with relevant ministers and officials but also lacked a clear policy framework.
Acting on a whim, the German Emperor demanded that the Foreign Ministry swiftly reach an agreement with Russia.
"Our consistent policy is to support Japan. Japan has repeatedly promised to protect German interests in China, so we cannot suddenly harm the friendship with the Japanese Empire now."
When Foreign Minister Marshal tried to persuade Wilhelm II, his uncooperative attitude angered Willy.
"Compared to the friendship with Russia, those Japanese monkeys in the Far East are insignificant."
Wilhelm II contemptuously declared, ordering Marshal, "You should get to work instead of delaying me here."
This frustration contributed to the change in attitude of the German envoy in St. Petersburg from indifference on March 15 to a complete turnaround on March 23.
Although Nicholas was surprised by the rapid change in German diplomacy, he had obtained a powerful card for pressuring Japan—Germany's involvement.
Nevertheless, Wilhelm II's views were always wavering, making it difficult for him to make firm, decisive commitments.
In other words, he could be excited by any or all policy proposals.
"Why don't we involve the British as well? If the three of us start unified actions, the British will feel they misjudged the consequences of the peace treaty! I believe the British will eventually change their attitude."
Inspired by his own idea, Wilhelm II eagerly instructed the Foreign Ministry to implement this diplomatic suggestion. His unpredictable whims greatly frustrated the diplomats.
"This is the third diplomatic plan in two months!"
Such obvious capriciousness left the officials responsible for planning and executing German diplomacy in a state of panic.
Due to Wilhelm II's sudden whims, the Russian and French Foreign Ministries had to wait for Britain's response.
However, Wilhelm's expectations were not met.
At the British Cabinet meeting, Foreign Minister Kimberley still believed, "The Treaty of Shimonoseki benefits Britain more, as the opening of new ports and greater concessions will benefit international trade. Additionally, Japan's victory will hinder Russian policies in Manchuria and Korea."
An article in the London News Daily that day, apparently written by a significant political figure, openly declared, "If Japan can acknowledge that Britain indeed needs a naval base in the north, then Britain can become Japan's friend."
Wilhelm II's idea of a partnership with Britain fell through.
Thus, the Russian, German, and French governments no longer delayed and instructed their envoys in Japan to proceed as originally planned.
This was the reason for the German envoy's scheduled meeting being postponed by one day.
But Wilhelm II felt that this support for his cousin Nicholas was still insufficient and did not reflect the "long-standing friendship" between Germany and Russia. Therefore, on the day of the signing of the Treaty of Shimonoseki, he assured Nicholas that he would support Russian actions as much as possible.
The next day, Wilhelm II, always quick to make new decisions, eagerly informed Nicholas of another plan.
"The German admiral commanding the fleet in Chinese waters has received orders to head to northern Chinese ports and attempt to establish contact with the Russian admiral. If you don't mind, please instruct your naval admiral to inform us of your location and provide us with advance notice of your future plans, so I can issue corresponding orders to our naval forces. I would be very grateful."
Wilhelm II's bellicose stance surprised Nicholas, who had not considered initiating a war without preparation. Thus, Nicholas cautiously declined the offer.
"I will instruct our naval admiral to establish contact with Germany, but I strongly hope that our military intervention can be resolved peacefully."
Despite this, Wilhelm II continued to advocate for "war" to Nicholas.
"With my authority, I will do everything possible to maintain peace in Europe, protect Russia's rear, and ensure that no one interferes with your actions in the Far East. Without a doubt, continuing the civilization of the Asian continent and defending Europe from the invasion of yellow races is Russia's great mission for the future. I will always do my utmost to support you in this."
Nicholas responded by dismissing the offer with a smirk after reading it.
Compared to Germany's scheming, France's diplomatic stance was much "simpler and more straightforward."
Firstly, France was fully focused on its expedition to conquer Madagascar and had limited resources for dealing with the situation in the Far East.
Secondly, France viewed Taiwan and the Penghu Islands as part of its future plan to divide China, and France's Foreign Ministry had consistently opposed Japan's occupation.
Finally, when Russia proposed intervention, France was the first to express strong support.
In other words, while Russia and France were always inclined to interfere with the Treaty of Shimonoseki, fearing insufficient strength, Germany's involvement completed the final piece of interference.
Thus, Nicholas concluded that as long as Germany remained aligned with Russia's position, Japan would achieve nothing.
However, Japan's efforts were gradually diminishing this optimal situation.
Nicholas's advantages lay in his position as the autocratic Emperor of all Russia, whose word was law. Additionally, he enjoyed a personal rapport with Kaiser Wilhelm II of Germany, who prided himself on retaining "autocratic power." Finally, France had a vested interest in maintaining its alliance with Russia to uphold the Franco-Russian military partnership.
Thus, while Nicholas had few diplomatic cards to play, each carried significant weight.
But the Japanese did not sit still.
After receiving instructions from Foreign Minister Mutsu Munemitsu, Nishida Jiro, the Japanese envoy in St. Petersburg, was eager to arrange a meeting with the newly appointed Russian Foreign Minister, Ramsdorf.
"Although Japan will permanently occupy the Liaodong Peninsula, this will not threaten Russian interests. Regarding Korea's independence, the Japanese government will definitely meet Russia's demands," Nishida Jiro said earnestly after a deep bow and exchanging pleasantries.
"Well…" Ramsdorf replied with a troubled expression, "Although an understanding has been reached between China and Japan through negotiations, the treaty's terms are excessively harsh. There is a high risk of the peace being disrupted again, which we hope to avoid."
"Do you consider our conditions to be harsh?" Nishida asked.
"I have communicated with the Chinese envoy and presented the memorandum in detail to His Majesty the Emperor. His Majesty has judged that Japan's demands are excessive," Ramsdorf responded.
"But previously, I was informed by your Foreign Ministry that Russia had no objection to Japan's acquisition of Chinese territories. Why has your stance changed now?" Nishida inquired, frustrated.
"We did not anticipate that Japan would actually seek to seize Chinese land," Ramsdorf said dismissively before dismissing Nishida.
Nishida continued his efforts in St. Petersburg for several more days but, finding no success, had no choice but to report back to Japan.
"According to the telegram, I engaged in a lengthy debate with the Russian Foreign Minister, trying to obtain a favorable response to our request. However, the minister claimed that the Russian Emperor found no sufficient reason to withdraw Russia's advice to Japan and therefore could not agree. Furthermore, I have heard that the Russian government is preparing to send transport ships to Odessa to deploy troops. Consequently, it is anticipated that Russia's intervention will be significant, and we should prepare for it to ensure Japan's security."
Although Nishida's efforts in St. Petersburg had failed, other envoys continued their activities.
In London, Ambassador Kato Takayoshi sought a meeting with British Foreign Minister Earl Kimberley, John Ward-House, as soon as he received the telegram.
"Mr. Kato, as you know, the British government has always valued its friendship with Japan," Earl Kimberley said, revealing a pro-Japanese stance that pleased Kato.
"Japan hopes to receive assistance from Britain," Kato stated.
In response to Kato's request, Ward-House said ambiguously, "The British government has decided not to intervene. Any assistance Britain might provide would be another form of intervention. If a new situation is to arise, it must be discussed with Prime Minister Earl Rosebery before we can respond."
The current British Prime Minister was Archibald Philip Primrose, Earl Rosebery of the Liberal Party.
While Earl Kimberley did not explicitly oppose Kato's request, he also did not express support. British diplomacy was known for its subtlety.
"Regarding this matter, Japan acknowledges that British interests take precedence over those of other European countries and will make special efforts to accommodate such interests," Kato promised.
"Britain, in its hope for peace, certainly does not wish to see Japan at war with European countries, nor does it want to see continued conflict between Japan and China. The UK will do its best to help resolve the current impasse if an opportunity arises. However, while Britain maintains friendly relations with Japan, Russia, Germany, and France are also its allies. At this time, Britain must consider the situation from all sides and use its status as a major power to make decisions responsibly and mediate accordingly."
Earl Kimberley's words were so diplomatically vague that while Kato appeared to gain something from the British, upon reflection, it seemed like nothing at all.
When Kato sought to discuss British-Japanese assistance again, Kimberley's responses remained as vague and obstructive as before.
Thus, Japan's efforts to counter the intervention of Britain, Italy, and the United States were nearly unsuccessful.
Additionally, the Japanese envoys in the United States and Italy—Kuriya Shinichiro and Takahira Kogoro—were making similar efforts, but both countries remained neutral and offered only polite remarks, yielding little benefit for Japan.
"Why is your country joining Russia and Germany in intervening in Japan's treaty? Is it because Japan has not guaranteed your interests in East Asia?" Baron Hayashi, the Japanese Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs, inquired of the French envoy, Herrmann, during the period before the three-country intervention response was received.
"I do not know. This matter might be a result of communication between Paris and St. Petersburg," Herrmann candidly admitted, indicating he was simply following protocol.
"This sudden intervention advice caught us off guard," Hayashi said with a troubled expression.
"France still holds a friendly disposition toward Japan. I will report this matter to the Foreign Minister," Herrmann assured Hayashi.
Subsequently, Hayashi also privately met with German envoy Gottsmeide.
"The German government had previously advised Japan, but since you did not heed it, we had no choice but to issue a joint protest," Gottsmeide's stance was firmer than the French envoy's.
"Did we not repeatedly assure your country of our commitment to protecting your interests in China?" Hayashi pointed out previous assurances, including the international navigation status of the Taiwan Strait.
"Japan must yield because there is no hope of confronting the three countries," Gottsmeide said with some impatience.
"Should there also be protests if Japan temporarily occupies the territory until the compensation is paid?" Hayashi asked cautiously, hoping not to anger Gottsmeide.
"…" Gottsmeide was momentarily at a loss for words, offering only vague threats before the meeting ended unpleasantly.
With these attempts to dismantle the intervention of Russia, Germany, and France and seeking help from Britain, Italy, and the United States failing, Japan faced significant diplomatic challenges.
After a few days, envoys from Russia, Germany, and France repeatedly visited the Foreign Ministry to urge Japan to respond to their "advice."
Russian envoy Khitrov threatened Hayashi: "We hope the Japanese government will not take preemptive measures that create new difficulties and confront the three countries."
Herrmann, now displaying a more confrontational stance, said, "Japan should reconsider before being blinded by the pretense of being an outsider!"
The Ito Hirobumi cabinet, although considering new strategies, could not come up with a good plan immediately.
Thus, Japan had no choice but to make a show of concession to buy more time.
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