Chapter 102: The Bonds - Gold Mine
After waiting for a moment and seeing that no one was speaking, Konstantin asked on point, "Mr. Kenedi, you are an expert in finance, what do you think about this?"
"Your Excellency, with all due respect, even if that were the case, we couldn't possibly do it!!! The Bulgarian government's international reputation is not good enough to be trusted unless a corporation is willing to take it over! It would be possible to sell 20 to 30 million and that would be the limit!" said Minister of Finance Kenedi with certainty.
His judgment, no one refutes, at this era, when Britain and the United States issued bonds, all require the support of corporations, or we can not sell the same! The general public simply does not have much money. There is no way to talk about purchasing power!
"What about raising the interest rate?" asked Konstantin, unwilling to give up.
Kenedi thought about it and said, " From my personal initial estimate, if: the annual interest rate is 7%, it can probably sell twenty to thirty million; the annual interest rate is 8%, it can probably sell forty million or less; the annual interest rate is 9%, it can probably sell about fifty million; the annual interest rate is 10%, it can probably sell sixty-five million; the annual interest rate is 11%, it can probably sell ninety million..."
Konstantin suddenly interrupted him and said, "No need to say the rest, Mr. Kenedi, I think we can't afford to pay the interest even if we know it! It is better to say directly, what is the maximum interest rate we can afford!"
"With the interest rate of 10.5%, plus the current fees rate of no less than 2.5% for issuing bonds internationally, it adds up to the interest rate we are bearing is actually over 13%! Once we exceed that line, it will be not worth it to issue bonds!!!" Kenedi said without hesitation.
"That's almost twice the interest rate on the loan!" Chekhov exclaimed.
"You can't count it that way! It is true that the interest rate on the loan is lower on the surface, but what about the terms that come with it? If you take a total long-term view, it is essentially more costly to pay for international loans!" Kennedy explained.
...
After some research, the cabinet still decided to issue bonds, although the interest rate is a little higher, but does not involve sovereignty! As long as the country has completed industrialization, the revenues will certainly increase enormously by then, and slowly pay back the debt later, it is better not to carry the name of the traitor!
It is not an easy job to issue bonds, although people in great demand buy the bonds in the future, but the people of this year are poor! No matter what the interest rate, it takes money to buy!
Minister of Finance Kenedi is now in a difficult position. Although the government has decided to issue bonds, how much and high the interest rate are to be calculated and justified by the Ministry of Finance itself before reporting!
"Mr. Minister, the personnel are all in place and ready to start!" The secretary reminded.
Kenedi still has the decency to invite all Bulgarian mathematicians and financiers to join in the analysis in order to arrive at a reasonable figure as accurately as possible!
After hearing the secretary's reminder, Kenedi got up while saying, "Let's go then, don't keep everyone waiting!"
In the meeting room, experts and academicians are gathering in groups with each other to exchange words.
"Staudt my friend, do you know what the Ministry of Finance has invited everyone here today?" Rehmann Holman asked dubiously.
"Rehmann, are you kidding me? I am engaged in mathematical research, but you are the one who is engaged in economics, as well as the adviser of the Ministry of Finance, right? If you don't know, how can I know!" Staudt glared at him and said resentfully.
"God forbid, I just asked casually! You know how normally the Ministry of Finance and you guys don't have much to deal with, and this time you were suddenly invited over, and I thought you knew about it?" Rehmann Holman said, depressed.
...
Kenedi's arrival interrupted the exchange of words, and the scene fell silent.
"Good afternoon, gentlemen! It's a pleasure to meet you all here, and your time is valuable, so I'll keep it short! I invited you all here today for the issuance of national bonds, and my secretary sent you the data! You can browse through it first, but the content must be kept confidential!" Kenedi said cautiously.
They took over the document, and all of them carefully browsed it, and the more they read it, the more shocking it was! After half a second, seeing that everyone had finished reading, Kenedi said seriously.
"I hope you all understand the current situation, the next step is up to you! But please note is that this matter must be kept confidential, once leaked out, it will cause unthinkable effects!"
The crowd nodded in unison, and the group sitting around here took what should be subsidized by the government. These theoretical studies done at the end of the 19th century are of a public interest nature. There is not much other income! In Bulgaria, it is challenging to give businesses as advisers in such a small country. It isn't easy to brush the presence in the newspaper. Everyone is far more interested in the industry than theory!
It is not enough to invite experts to participate. Kenedi is clear that this group of experts and academics are only for their opinions. The Ministry of Finance itself has to calculate its own, as the final result for validation!
Ferdinand was not very concerned about the interest rate calculated by the Ministry of Finance, but he knew it could not be too low anyway! How could it be cheap to borrow money without collateral when the international interest rates of this era exist?
For the gold standard, Ferdinand remains painful. Gold reserves are not easy to get! If possible, Ferdinand really does not mind changing to the fiat standard. Of course, it can only be just an idea! In the present situation, which issued loan funds, it is estimated that inflation can compete with Zimbabwe!
The Balkans have always been a major gold-producing region in Europe, dating back to ancient times when it was mined. Ferdinand can't remember how much Bulgaria's gold reserves are, and in any case, it still exports gold to China in the 21st century.
Anyway, at the end of the 19th century, the Bulgarian economy was so large in history that it always took gold out from the country to make up for the deficit in foreign trade.
Ferdinand, who lacks money, will now target the gold mines. It is important to know that the previous takeover of the Austro-Hungarian Bank's assets in Bulgaria, which includes several areas of mines, although due to the short time in hand, has not yet had time to large-scale mining.
There is no shortage of gold mining expertise. After all, Ferdinand has United Mining Co., Ltd., which has been in operation for several years, and the technical equipment is at the forefront of the world!
There is not much technology in the mining industry in this era. The internal combustion engine is not yet widespread. There is not much machinery that they can use. It is mainly by human power. Mining is not a good job because it is labor-intensive, dangerous, and risky.
Ferdinand estimated that the previous Austro-Hungarian Bank did not have large-scale mining. There are not enough workers is also a reason for it! After all, mining is a high-risk job, and Bulgaria's population is limited, and they will recruit a few miners to do it!
"Karl, have you finished surveying all the gold mines under the Royal Bank?"
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