Chapter 36: Behavioural Patterns
The days slowly passed. Grond taught me how to make and repair tools, as well as sharpen and care for weapons. On the other hand, my practice with medicine making proceeded well. After few more tries, I was able to make a proper Vital Liquid, but Nick insisted on more practice. The rarer and more difficult recipes required really good control, moving onto those wasn't ideal at my skill level.
Other than working and making medicine, I'd observe people. Day in, day out, I got used to what people do, how they behave and found the patterns to their behaviours. What someone did depended on many factors, emotions played a large part of that. Based on emotional patterns, predicting someone's next action wasn't a fairy tale anymore.
Though emotions were a great start, it wasn't a complete picture. My focus turned towards the movements of my targets. How they'd walk, how they'd lift their arm and so on. That idea came to my mind when thinking about what would happen next. Because future was unknown, the only way in my mind, was to attach certain percentages to those probabilities.
The Probable Behaviour became the term for this way of analysing people. Each action had to have a certain probability attached to it, the higher the percentage, the more likely it was to happen. Though my idea was rather fresh, I decided to share it with Nick, and ask for his opinion.
"That's not a bad approach to be honest. Though, if there are many possibilities, how will you get that high percentage of an action?", he asked after my explanation. "Ideally, I want to get so familiar with people's behaviour, their actions will naturally raise these possibilities. One such example could be a drunkard walking down the street. He wobbles left and right, while his steps are heavy. What will happen next?", I asked Nick.
"There's no way for me to tell, without seeing that for myself", he replied, but I shook my head. "There is. What are the most probable outcomes? He continues to walk, without falling. That's one possibility. Another is he falls to the ground. There are a few more, but just concerning these two, it's a fifty-fifty, right?". "Well, yes. If you only have these two, it is fifty-fifty. That doesn't change anything, since this is akin to a coin toss", Nick replied.
"No, it isn't. As you mentioned, if you could see him, you'd be able to tell at some point. That means, at some point the scales begin to tip one way or another. Fifty-one to forty-nine, though the difference is small, the possibility of him falling is higher in that instance. You might be able to tell if he's about to trip or fall based on his body, but what if I could predict that sooner?", I explained.
Nick remained silent for a while. "... Do you think you can actually manage that?", he asked. "Hehe, I intend to find out. After all, I'm still familiarising myself with people, their behaviour, body movement and such. I'm asking your opinion whether it's worth for me to think like that", I replied. Nick smiled before replying, "There's no such thing as a wrong path. There were many things you thought impossible, and yet here we are. Your idea isn't bad, actually, it's better if you think about it. The sooner you can base your decision, the better. There is a drawback to your method however. If you are wrong, it could end up in injury or death", Nick presented his thoughts.
"This method akin to a double edged sword is worth exploring though. Now matter how you put it, your observations need to be quick and precise. If this makes it easier for you, I've nothing against. Moreover, I'm not a hundred percent accurate myself. I'm not sure you can be. Like you said, there are many possibilities, but however small possibility of something happening is, that possibility still exists", he added.
I decided to continue with my method. Just as Nick said, the path to that goal didn't matter, what mattered was the goal itself. "What about we try a different recipe now? I'm quite familiar with Vital Liquid already, and the more recipes I practice the better, right?", I asked. "Sure, we can move on at this stage. You've made a few usable batches, but do remember to practice that once you leave this place. Since you are so eager, today we will search for herbs used in Older Root Juice. Do you know the herbs required?", Nick asked.
"Sure, I remember the recipe. We need...", Nick stopped me, "You don't need to tell me then. Just go look for them". I nodded then thought about the easiest one from the list. 'Capped Mushroom should be the easiest one. During our searched for Vital Grass, I've noticed some of them already... They should be in this direction'. With that in mind, I headed towards a specific location.
Capped Mushrooms usually grew in places with loads of shadow, especially next to oak trees. Thankfully, the forest was full of those, and some Capped Mushrooms grew there as expected. 'This was easy, now the next herb is Green Lavender... We need to head towards the fields', I thought. Though some people planted lavender, it wasn't usually the Green Lavender. Nonetheless, the fields just outside the village were our best bet.
"Hmm, there's some White Lavender, but not the green one... We can't use the white variety, right?". "I mean, you could use it, but the effect will be a bit different. Let's just say, adding this herb will make you spend some time on the toilet. We can use it, if you want", Nick replied. I shook my head, and recalled the berries from the forest. "Yea, no. I'll pass on that, thanks", I replied and decided to look a bit more.
The scope of my search became wider and wider, until finally some Green Lavender appeared. 'Thankfully, I felt like he'd make me drink that if we used the white variety', I thought and said, "This should be enough for a few tries. Now, it's the Red Forest Root that remains". Which was a bit of a problem. Red Forest Roots grew on or near maple trees. I've seen many during my travels, but none in the areas we visited while looking for herbs.
"I'm not sure if we can find any here. I know these parts quite well, and there aren't any maple trees. I'm not sure if we have enough time to wander further away", I said. "That's true, but there are some maple trees. You just haven't been to that place yet. Actually, it's not that far away from the river. I'll make an exception, and take you to that area", Nick replied and led the way.
With the maple trees in sight, finding the Red Forest Root wasn't a problem. "We have enough herbs for a few batches. Do you want to show me the process first, or should I start straight away?", I asked. Nick told me to give it a go first, and then we'd see.
The recipe for Older Root Juice was rather simple. I had to boil the roots for a few minutes, remove the dregs, and then gently cook the Green Lavender with Capped Mushrooms. Before cooking, each herb had to be examined for its grade. The mushrooms were of rather good quality, while Green Lavender was of rather average quality. The roots were of very good quality. Perhaps not perfect, but close to that. With the grades determined, I measure the correct proportions, and began the process.
Due to my previous experience with Vital Liquid, I managed to create Older Root Juice on my first try. Though the quality of the final product wasn't the best, it was usable. "You did pretty good. You are getting used to controlling the temperature, and you judged the grades very well. Your proportions were a bit off though. You could've used a bit more of the lavender, that would make it a bit stronger. Other than that, make another batch", Nick commented.
His praises were rather rare, but each time he gave one, it was a good motivation for me. I exhausted all the herbs, and made four batches that night. Only one was above average, while the other three were average or just below that. "You can take the best bottle, and discard the rest. We'll do this a few more times, so you'll get more of this juice. I suggest drinking that after your work. This will help you restore your stamina, and relax your muscles a bit", Nick said.
We continued like this with medicine making for another few weeks. There was a lot for me to learn, but my control of the temperature became much better, and the recipes became easier. At one point, Nick even asked me to do a simple poison, which was the same poison he used on the knives the night I buried Dina. The poison was named Axon Poison, and as my body experienced, the poison would paralyse the body.
The poison wasn't dangerous, since it had to be introduced to the bloodstream, but it was useful nonetheless. The effects it carried were long lasting, as even diluted Axon Poison could paralyse a limb for half an hour to one hour. A full strength poison could render someone immobile for a few hours. Moreover, if introduced to the heart or other main organs, it would lead to death. I had to watch out during cooking process, since large amount of fumes could also paralyse me slightly. Otherwise, the poison could be spilled on a bare hand, and nothing would happen. Of course provided there were no wounds.
Besides the daily medicine and poison making, I focused on my idea with behavioural patterns and probabilities. With more experience, and different people to watch, I came to one conclusion. The idea with percentages and probabilities suited me much more than simple staring and guessing. Each time I tried to predict an action, I'd be about sixty-five percent correct. That wasn't so much better from fifty-fifty, but it was only the beginning. With more time, patterns, movements and so on, my prediction rate would increase. Whether a hundred percent was possible or not didn't matter. What mattered was to get as close as possible.
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DarkRay
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