บท 48: The Turbulent Far East
The impact of the Triple Intervention extended beyond the Western powers and Japan; the Qing court also became aware of Nicholas II's "letter of advice" to Japan.
On April 21st, the Qing court sent a telegram to Minister Xu Jingcheng, requesting a detailed understanding of Russia's stance, attitude, and conditions.
The next day, Grand Secretary Xu Yongyi was ordered to visit the Russian embassy to gather information and understand the specific progress of the Triple Intervention.
A considerable number of ministers began to consider delaying the ratification of the Treaty of Shimonoseki and even thought about reclaiming the Liaodong Peninsula and Taiwan.
On April 23rd, upon learning that the Triple Intervention had officially begun, the court dispatched Prince Qing, Sun Yuwen, Ronglu, and others to the Russian embassy with the highest honors to "meet with the Russian envoy, express gratitude, and inform them that the ratification cannot be delayed too long, and to send a telegram to Russia for instructions."
The hope that Russia's leadership in the Triple Intervention could restrain Japan and even delay the ratification of the Treaty of Shimonoseki, essentially suggesting a breach of the treaty, was short-lived.
This "fantasy" was quickly shattered by German Foreign Minister Marschall.
After gaining tacit approval from Wilhelm II, the German Foreign Ministry immediately began to reverse its previously criticized overly friendly policy towards Russia.
On May 4th, Marschall sent a note to the Qing court's representative in Germany, inquiring why the exchange of documents for the Treaty of Shimonoseki had not taken place.
"Due to the unresolved negotiations of the Triple Intervention, the Emperor does not wish to ratify the treaty," the representative replied.
"The exchange of documents must proceed as usual," Marschall responded in a strongly worded, almost threatening tone.
"Ratifying the treaty is unavoidable. If not ratified, we will let China decide its own fate," he implied, meaning that if the Qing government did not ratify the treaty on time, Germany would abandon its intervention efforts.
To urge the Qing government to proceed with the exchange, the German ambassador to China personally visited and warned the Grand Council that delaying the exchange would provide Japan with an excuse to resume hostilities and would lose international sympathy and trust.
Meanwhile, Marschall sent a telegram to the German ambassador in Britain to negotiate with Japan's ambassador to Britain, Kato Takaaki.
The German ambassador sent his private secretary to meet with Kato in a private setting.
"Russia's stance is increasingly deviating from our diplomatic bottom line. Given the current situation, France will not withdraw from the intervention alliance, and Germany has always had friendly feelings towards Japan, both in the past and present. Therefore, we sincerely hope this incident can be resolved amicably."
"If Germany has such friendly feelings towards Japan, why did it join the Triple Intervention against Japan?" Kato asked in bewilderment.
"This is difficult to explain; it is more related to Germany's strategic interests in Europe," the German diplomat replied diplomatically, implying that Germany's involvement in the alliance was driven by European strategic considerations.
"Furthermore, Germany's participation in the intervention alliance is also a gesture of friendship towards your country," the diplomat added.
"Oh? How so? I would like to hear your insights," Kato asked.
"Because Germany can persuade Russia and France to lower their demands," the German ambassador explained.
"In any case, Japan should be satisfied with occupying Taiwan and the Pescadores. As for the Liaodong Peninsula, if Japan can relinquish its claim to permanent occupation, both the German and Japanese governments will work together to ensure a proper resolution."
Kato immediately sent this latest diplomatic breakthrough back to Japan for Mutsu Munemitsu's consideration.
A few days later, Marschall personally met with Japan's ambassador to Germany, Aoki Shuzo.
"If envoys from France or Russia inquire, the Japanese government can clearly state its determination to occupy Taiwan and the Pescadores."
Japan had been uncertain about the true stance of the Triple Intervention powers on its territorial acquisitions in China, making any diplomatic move feel like groping in the dark without absolute certainty.
Marschall's statement revealed Germany's position on the Taiwan issue, indicating that the Triple Intervention was not entirely united on the matter, with Germany at least supporting Japan.
Marschall's supportive attitude gave Japan a significant boost, strengthening its resolve to occupy Taiwan and the Pescadores without fear of intervention from the other two countries.
Lastly, Marschall instructed the German ambassador to Russia, Radolin, to convey some provocative information to Russian Foreign Minister Lamsdorf.
"Our vice-consul in Kaohsiung, Taiwan, has learned that the Chinese governor of Taiwan claimed that their envoy in Paris has started negotiations with the French government against Japan's annexation of Taiwan. France seems interested but has not reached an agreement, and French warships are expected to arrive soon."
Radolin alarmingly conveyed to Lamsdorf.
"The obvious aim of this Chinese plot is to involve the powers in a war against Japan, as Japan will not relinquish Taiwan without a fight. After the war, French public opinion might demand Taiwan as compensation, leading to a crisis with far-reaching consequences that could undermine the intervention plans upheld by Russia and Germany. We should timely grant Japan some space for maneuvering."
Marschall seemed to be accusing the Qing court, but he was actually suggesting that China and France were conspiring to use the Triple Intervention as a pretext to start a war against Japan, aiming to fulfill France's ambition to annex Taiwan.
"Intervening in Japan's occupation of Taiwan is driven by commercial interests for all three powers. France's solo annexation of Taiwan is out of the question, especially since France is unlikely to start a second war while still engaged in the Madagascar campaign," Lamsdorf calmly pointed out the improbability of the situation.
"If it's for commercial interests, Germany believes that all nations with commercial interests in China, especially Britain, should be consulted," Radolin suggested, presenting Germany's well-crafted second argument.
Since Russia opposed Japan's occupation of Taiwan for commercial reasons, other major powers with interests, particularly Britain, should also be involved in the negotiations.
Sensing Germany's ulterior motives, Lamsdorf deferred, saying the matter needed to be presented to the Russian Emperor.
"Does Germany mean that if we insist on Japan returning Taiwan, they will invite the British to join?" Nicholas asked, his good mood fading upon hearing Lamsdorf's report.
"That seems to be their intention, Your Majesty," Lamsdorf replied.
"...Sigh, it seems we have no choice but to concede," Nicholas sighed.
In fact, there was considerable debate within Russia about whether to intervene in Japan's occupation of Taiwan and the Pescadores, but the situation had previously been one-sided, so it was left unchecked.
If Germany defected, the success of the intervention would be uncertain.
Under the proactive maneuvers of the German Foreign Ministry, Nicholas's diplomatic victory was reversed.
On May 5th, a meeting was held in Kyoto with key members of the Japanese Cabinet and High Command. Attendees included Foreign Minister Mutsu Munemitsu, Prime Minister Ito Hirobumi, Finance Minister Matsukata Masayoshi, Navy Minister Saigo Tsugumichi, Home Minister Nomura Yasushi, and Navy Chief of Staff Kabayama Sukenori.
"Now, we should temporarily accept the demand to return the Liaodong Peninsula as advised by the three countries. First, we need to resolve this major issue diplomatically. On the other hand, we must not back down on the ratification and exchange of the Treaty of Shimonoseki. There should be no delays, and it must be carried out resolutely."
Through Germany's proactive disclosures, Mutsu Munemitsu had already formed a clear conclusion about the internal reasons behind the Triple Intervention. His proposal received majority support from the attendees.
However, after agreeing on the basic approach, there were varying opinions on the specific details of returning the Liaodong Peninsula.
"Since it has been decided to return the Liaodong Peninsula to the Chinese, should we return it unconditionally as a gesture of goodwill, or should we attach certain conditions for compensation?" Ito Hirobumi asked the assembled ministers.
The civil officials, led by Finance Minister Matsukata Masayoshi, believed that compensation could be requested, but it should be moderate to avoid offending the three countries again.
On the other hand, the Japanese military felt that as much compensation as possible should be demanded, and this money should be entirely converted into military funds.
The Triple Intervention led by Russia had severely impacted the pride of the Japanese Army and Navy, with some voices within the military now suggesting that Russia should be considered Japan's future enemy instead of China.
Such debates and discussions lasted all day.
The next day, Mutsu Munemitsu drafted a response document to the Triple Intervention's advice, which Ito Hirobumi took to the Emperor for a decision.
The formal document was then sent by telegraph on May 7th to the Japanese envoys in Russia, Germany, and France, instructing them to deliver the memorandum to their respective governments.
"The Government of the Empire of Japan, in accordance with the friendly advice of the governments of Russia, Germany, and France, agrees to abandon the permanent occupation of the Liaodong Peninsula."
When Nicholas received the memorandum from Foreign Minister Lamsdorf on May 8th, he inquired, "I've heard that the Japanese are also asking the Chinese for a ransom to return the Liaodong Peninsula?"
After the German Foreign Ministry conveyed to Count Lamsdorf their opposition to interfering with Japan's occupation of Taiwan and the Pescadores, Nicholas shifted his focus from the return of these islands to the issue of the 'Liaodong ransom.'
"I am not aware of that, Your Majesty," Lamsdorf responded, surprised, and promised to inquire with the Japanese envoy.
"Hmm, no matter. If Japan demands a ransom, tell them that ten million should suffice," Nicholas mused. He wasn't certain of the historical ransom amount but guessed that it wouldn't be more than his estimate.
"Yes, Your Majesty," Lamsdorf replied and conveyed this to the Japanese envoy, Aoki Shuzo.
Meanwhile, the foreign ministries of Germany and France expressed unofficial satisfaction with Japan's memorandum, instructing their envoys in China to press the Qing government to quickly exchange the Treaty of Shimonoseki documents.
On May 8th, China and Japan completed the treaty exchange procedures in Yantai, officially enacting the Treaty of Shimonoseki.
On May 9th, after the dust had settled temporarily, the Russian envoy to Japan, Hitrovo, conveyed a telegram from St. Petersburg to the Japanese Foreign Ministry.
"The Imperial Government of Russia has received the notice from the Government of Japan regarding the abandonment of permanent occupation of the Liaodong Peninsula. We highly appreciate this measure by the Japanese Government, as it contributes to global peace. Furthermore, regarding the issue of ransom for the Liaodong Peninsula, the Russian Emperor, in a spirit of fairness and friendship, suggests that Japan should demand no more than ten million taels."
Mutsu Munemitsu was stunned by the Russian response, as the issue of the Liaodong ransom had not yet been decided domestically, and yet the Russians had already proposed a definite amount.
"Is this Russia's opinion?" Mutsu Munemitsu asked Hitrovo, probing whether this was a hard requirement or merely a 'suggestion.'
"I believe it is reasonable. A few days ago, the German envoy dreamt that the amount should be between ten and fifteen million taels," Hitrovo said, half-jokingly.
Hitrovo made this remark because he believed that the more China paid, the more it would depend on loans from the great powers, and the more Russia could profit in China.
Feeling he was serving Russian interests, he didn't take the advice seriously.
"I see. In our previous discussions, we were considering auctioning the Liaodong Peninsula. If there were a buyer willing to pay, we would sell it to the highest bidder," Mutsu Munemitsu replied, also half-jokingly, but testing whether Russia valued the Liaodong Peninsula.
"That won't work. The land of the Liaodong Peninsula is barren; no one would be willing to pay a high price," Hitrovo immediately retorted.
"However, from a strategic standpoint, the Liaodong Peninsula has significant value, although this is difficult to quantify in monetary terms," added German envoy Götzmid.
From the different reactions of Hitrovo and Götzmid, Mutsu Munemitsu roughly gauged Russia's interest in the Liaodong Peninsula.
Only those who want something themselves would devalue it when others possess it; if they didn't want it, they would recognize its full value.
On May 10th, Emperor Meiji issued a decree, accepting the advice of the three countries and abandoning the permanent occupation of the Liaodong Peninsula.
With this, the Triple Intervention and the return of the Liaodong Peninsula came to an end. The issue of the Liaodong ransom would continue to be haggled over for months but was no longer significant.
The First Sino-Japanese War became a pivotal event with dramatic impacts on China, Japan, and the great powers.
Before the First Sino-Japanese War, the basic pattern of international relations in the Far East continued the Anglo-Russian Great Game.
Though China and Japan's situations differed, both were shackled by unequal treaties imposed by the great powers.
Japan's victory in the First Sino-Japanese War catapulted it into the ranks of Asian powers, giving it a voice among the great powers, while China's international standing plummeted.
Moreover, the war shattered the facade of the Qing Dynasty's Self-Strengthening Movement, further emboldening the great powers' ambitions to invade China.
Russia, Germany, France, and the United States each had their own views and claims on interests in China, all challenging Britain's traditional dominant position in the Far East.
Thus, competition among the great powers in the Far East would intensify.
This foreshadowed an increasingly turbulent and unstable era in the Far East.
At present, Nicholas was focused on a matter of profound significance: the Qing government was preparing to raise foreign loans to pay Japan the war indemnity.
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