บท 117: 117
July 11, 1941
USSR Moscow Kremlin Palace
"Welcome, Master Dogo."
"Thank you for your hospitality."
Dogo took off his hat and greeted Molotov.
Until a month ago, he was in Berlin as ambassador to Germany, but as relations between Japan and Germany deteriorated, he was recalled to the mainland.
Unlike Japan, Germany did not expel Togo, the ambassador to Germany, but rather deployed the Waffen SS around the embassy to protect the embassy from possible terrorism or riots.
As Germany's gentlemanly response only tarnished Japan's image, the Japanese government issued an order to recall Togo.
After returning to Japan, Togo was immediately sent to the Soviet Union under a special order from the government.
His mission was to persuade the Soviet Union to block exchanges between China and Germany.
Molotov greeted Shigenori Togo, who had been appointed ambassador to Japan, with a smile on the outside, but inside he found him annoying.
Most likely, this time it is to ask for the Chinese border to be blocked.
It was a good thing to sign a non-aggression pact with Japan, but Molotov, who did not know that this would lead to Japanese whining, wondered what to say this time to send the annoying uninvited guest away.
But as the talks began, Molotov's thoughts changed.
"What did you say just now?"
Molotov asked, lifting his glasses with the back of his hand. What did I hear a moment ago?
"Japan is willing to return South Sakhalin to the Soviet Union if the Soviet government closes the Chinese border and stops all exchanges with China."
"… .Are you serious?"
"Would you talk about the return of national territory as a mere joke?"
Molotov looked Dogo in the eyes. There was not a single lie in Dogo's eyes.
By sealing the Soviet-Chinese border, South Sakhalin was acquired in exchange for aiding Japan's invasion of China.
Sakhalin was originally Russian territory, but due to the defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, southern Sakhalin became Japanese territory.
An opportunity arose to visit South Sakhalin, which had become a trauma for Russia, without shedding a single drop of blood.
"All right. But this issue seems too important for me to decide. "I think I should first talk to Comrade Secretary General and confirm his intentions."
"Understood, Foreign Minister Molotov."
***
"Japan takes South Sakhalin?"
"Yes, Comrade Secretary."
Stalin, who was working while sitting in his office chair, was troubled by Molotov's report.
He was lost in thought, even forgetting to sign the list of people to be purged that Beria had posted to him.
As Molotov said, this may be the first and last opportunity to regain South Sakhalin without going to war with Japan.
Considering the vast territory of the Soviet Union, South Sakhalin was nothing more than new blood, but considering the symbolism of South Sakhalin, it was too much of a waste to just give up.
However, it was Germany that was reluctant to bite into Japan's proposal.
It was obvious that if the Soviet Union blocked exchanges between Germany and China, it would inevitably lead to a backlash from Germany.
This was a high-risk transaction for Stalin, who made every effort to avoid offending Germany as much as possible.
I was afraid of Germany's backlash to grant Japan's request and take South Sakhalin, and I wondered when an opportunity like this would come before I could just ignore it.
'There is no such thing as Gyereuk.'
In preparation for a war with Germany that could break out at any moment, the military system is being reorganized - the purges have not stopped in the meantime - but the purges have not stopped - the company is devoting itself to weapons research and building a new defense line called the 'Molotov Line' on the border with Germany, but it is still absolutely impossible. It was.
Stalin believed that by 1943, the Soviet Union would have a military power that would not be inferior to Germany. But not now, in 1941.
"Comrade Molotov, what do you think?"
Unsure, Stalin pretended to remain calm and asked Molotov a question.
"I think it is right to accept Japan's proposal."
"The reason is?"
"First of all, an opportunity to take back South Sakhalin from Japan without firing a single gun."
"I know that. What I want to hear is a different opinion, a different opinion. "Everyone knows that this is a golden opportunity to reclaim South Sakhalin from Japan."
"Hmm, hmm. Excuse me. This is because we believe that Germany will not attack the Soviet Union over the China issue."
I finally came up with a decent answer.
"Keep talking."
"Everyone knows that the biggest threat to the Soviet Union is Germany. However, the biggest threat to Germany is the Soviet Union. Unlike the United States, which is across the Atlantic, and the United Kingdom, which has dispersed military forces to protect its colonies in India, Southeast Asia, and Africa, we border Germany. And it possesses a vast territory dozens of times larger than Germany's and enormous resources, manpower, and military.
Even though Germany has conquered Europe, it will feel quite burdened to go to war with such a large country. So the last time I met with Fuhrer Hitler in Berlin, I got the feeling that he wanted to avoid conflict with us. Of course, this is just my personal guess, but given that Führer Hitler did not oppose the Soviet Union's advance into the Middle East, I am confident that although he is not afraid of us, he does not consider us to be easy targets."
"Hoo?"
"And since Germany gains more from our exchanges than it does from its trade with China, it will be difficult for Germany to do anything more than protest even if we block traffic with China. "If we say that we will instead export the minerals that cannot be imported due to the blockage of exchanges with China, Germany will also calm down."
"That seems plausible."
Stalin, satisfied with Molotov's explanation, smiled and nodded.
Yes, Germany is the biggest threat to the Soviet Union, but at the same time, the Soviet Union is also Germany's biggest enemy.
No matter what Hitler might be thinking, he probably won't start a war right away. At least within this year.
Stalin, encouraged by Molotov's words, made a decision.
"Proceed as is."
"I understand, Comrade Secretary."
"really."
"?"
"But the opponent is Germany. You can never let down your guard. So I think it would be better to add a few more divisions. "Germany could use this incident as an excuse to stage a show of force."
"How big are you going to do it?"
"I think around 7 or 8 would be appropriate."
***
July 16, 1941
New Fuhrer's Residence in Berlin, Germany
"What on earth are you planning, Stalin… ."
Not long after the report of the victory of the elite German divisions trained by the Military Advisory Group in China came from China, an unexpected situation occurred.
The Soviet Union suddenly closed its border with China and banned the passage of all personnel and materials.
The ostensible reason was the conflict that arose between the Soviet Union (Kazakh Soviet Socialist Republic) and the Chinese border.
According to the Soviet side, National Revolutionary Army units opened fire on Soviet troops patrolling the border, killing two soldiers and seriously wounding an officer.
The Soviet Union declared that it would not lift the border blockade until China apologized to the Soviet Union and promised to punish and prevent those involved in the incident, and China fiercely protested, saying this was the first time this had happened.
"What are the chances that the Soviet Union's claims are true?"
Heydrich shook his head.
"It's not like there's no possibility, but I think it's very low."
"Yeah, I guess so…" ."
Both SD and Afbear, under its command, concluded that this was a Soviet play. That was my thought too.
Common sense tells us that China, which is busy waging war with Japan right now, would go crazy and provoke the Soviet Union? Moreover, since China is continuing exchanges with Germany with the Soviet Union sandwiched between them, it has tended to lie close to the Soviet Union rather than quarrel with the Soviet Union.
Did China suddenly launch a provocation against the Soviet Union over the border issue? Nothing fits together.
As the Soviet Union declared a border blockade, both German-bound trains carrying Chinese minerals and Chinese-bound trains carrying German-made equipment, spare parts, technicians, and other personnel were forcibly stopped by the Soviet military.
When we protested to the Soviet Union, the Soviet Union informed us that it would return both the China-bound train and the Germany-bound train to Germany.
Looking at this, it is clear that this incident was not aimed at Germany, but at China. Why all of a sudden?
"There may be many reasons, but I think the biggest possibility is because of Japan's request."
"Right. Yes, there was Japan."
The country that benefited the most from the blockade of small and medium-sized borders was, by far, Japan.
This is because China cannot receive equipment and manpower from Germany until the border blockade is lifted.
For China, which had so far obtained most of its weapons and ammunition from Germany, this was nothing short of a lightning strike.
"But hasn't Japan been asking the Soviet Union to block the border with China ever since it signed a non-aggression pact with the Soviet Union? They've done a good job of avoiding Japan's requests so far, so why are they closing the border now? "I just don't understand."
"We will find out as soon as possible."
***
The reason for the Soviet Union's sudden action was soon revealed.
Japan announced that it would return South Sakhalin to the Soviet Union.
"In the end, it was because of this."
Now all the puzzles have been put together. The Soviet Union, which had so far been steadfast in response to Japan's continued requests, staged a self-imposed act and blocked the Chinese border as a condition for regaining South Sakhalin from Japan.
Now that the Soviet route was cut off, the only way for China to import goods from Germany was to ship them through the Mediterranean, Red Sea, and Indian Ocean, then unload them in Burma and then transport them by rail.
Of course, it took much more time and money than the Soviet route, and since French Indochina had fallen into the hands of the Japanese military, the Burma route was by no means safe.
Japanese bombers were already flying out every day and indiscriminately bombing China's borders, roads, and bridges close to Burma.
But Japan's laughter did not last long.
The United States, which had been viewing Japan's invasion of China with uneasy eyes, began imposing ultra-strong economic sanctions on July 26, banning steel and oil exports and freezing all Japanese assets in the United States.
Oil is a very essential resource not only for war but also for maintaining modern society.
Japan, which had a shortage of oil, was in a position to import most of the oil it needed from foreign countries, and more than 80% of its total oil imports were from the United States.
The US oil embargo against Japan shocked Japan.
Without oil, war cannot take place, and all Chinese-occupied territories, such as Altoran, that were barely acquired through all kinds of hardships over the past four years must be disgorged.
Of course, Japan, which had no intention of doing so, hastily began negotiations with the United States.
However, the United States took no action against the Soviet Union, which joined hands with Japan and took over China.
It was unclear whether it was because of Roosevelt's decision to be pro-Soviet or because, unlike Japan, there was no need to pretend to be with the Soviet Union. Maybe it's both.
In conclusion, only the Soviet Union, which took South Sakhalin without shedding a single drop of blood, benefited.
However, the Soviet Union's strange behavior did not stop there. Divisions stationed in the Far East were deployed to the German-Soviet border area via the Trans-Siberian Railway.
Suspicious Soviet troop movements were immediately captured by SD and reported to me.
The size of the Soviet Army redeployed from the Far East to Europe was three corps and a total of eight divisions.
Considering the size of the Soviet Army, which had 160 divisions (which would increase several times when the mobilization order was issued), 8 divisions may not have been a big deal, but it was a serious matter that should not be taken lightly.
In particular, among the eight divisions, there are three tank divisions with strong combat power.
After Heydrich finished explaining the level of individual combat power of the Soviet divisions redeployed to Europe and where they were deployed, I asked the generals for their honest opinions.
"No one has anything to say, so let everyone share their opinions honestly."
Defense Minister Keitel, nominally number one in the German military, spoke first.
"The Soviet Army deployed divisions brought from the Far East to the German border as if they were showing off. However, the number of divisions is too vague to scare us. If the intention was to really threaten Germany, at least double-digit numbers of divisions would have been deployed. Therefore, I think it is a demonstration of force to protect themselves rather than with the intention of directly threatening us."
"It's a show of force for protection. That's convincing. "What do other people think?"
"That's my opinion too."
Brauchitsch agreed with Keitel.
"Given that there is no increase in air power, Marshal Keitel's guess appears to be correct."
Goering agrees. Leder also agreed, saying there was nothing wrong with the Soviet Navy's movements.
However, Army Chief of Staff Reichenau had a slightly different idea.
"I agree with Marshal Keitel, but I still think we should think about other possibilities at least once."
Reichenau speculated that this might be part of a large-scale military exercise targeting Germany.
Although he couldn't decide whether the training would be for defense or offense, his guess that it was a large-scale training plan was quite persuasive.
Reichenau's chief of staff, General Friedrich Paulus, and the head of the Ministry of Defense's Operations Department, Jodl, also agreed with Reichenau's opinion.
In addition, Guderian, Manstein, and Kluge also speculated that the redeployment of Soviet troops might have a purpose other than military training.
Preparation for war that may someday occur. That was Manstein's guess.
"It is unlikely that the Soviet Union will start a war this year. But, I'm not sure about next year or the year after."
"Wait, wait."
I stuttered as an unexpected guess came out of Manstein's mouth.
"Does the Marshal think that Stalin moved troops in preparation for war?"
"Of course, I think the possibility is small, but I still want to say that every possibility must be considered once."
The Soviet invasion of Germany.
In history, Stalin ordered the military not to respond in any way, saying it could be a pretext for war even as German aircraft invaded Soviet airspace hundreds of times and German troops were deployed one after another to the Soviet border.
Stalin was so afraid of Germany that he invaded Germany?
As someone who knows history, it was a somewhat absurd guess, but Manstein's guess that all possibilities should be considered at least once was reasonable.
"Then let's do it this way. "We decided to deploy troops to the east in proportion to the number the Soviet troops moved."
After much thought, I adopted the 'eye for an eye' strategy. Since we haven't suffered anything from the Soviet Union yet, I feel like it's a bit inadequate to use the phrase 'an eye for an eye, a tooth for a tooth,' but I can't think of a more fitting proverb.
Until now, I had deliberately limited the deployment of troops to the border as much as possible for fear of provoking the Soviet Union.
However, since the Soviet Union moved first, I had a justification to deploy troops to the German-Soviet border.
"The Soviet Union deployed eight divisions, so we will deploy only six. "If we match the number or exceed it, it might give the Soviet Union an excuse to move more troops."
"I agree."
"Mr. President, what are your plans for dispatching engineers scheduled for August?"
At the request of the Soviet Union, I sent them a copy of the Graf Zeppelin blueprints.
And it was agreed that the engineers needed to build the aircraft carrier would be sent to the Soviet Union in August.
However, since the Soviet Union unilaterally blocked exchanges with China and even took actions suspected of being provocative, Leder argued that there was no need for us to keep all of our promises to the Soviet Union.
"We can't say we won't send engineers when we've even sent the blueprints in advance."
"But if we keep our promises, won't only the Soviet Union benefit?"
"That is correct. So let's send the technicians in September. "The number of people and the dispatch period will also be reduced compared to planned."
"All right."
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