[Chapter 904: The Future Scenario]
Early on Saturday morning, Michael Eisner drove to Universal Studios in Burbank. After over three months of preparations, the Titanic exhibition at Firefly Studios officially opened today.
Though the senior management at Firefly Group downplayed the event in various interviews, suggesting it was simply a trial run for a theme park project or even just a public relations move, Universal Studios wasn't about to take it lightly.
The theme park run by Universal Pictures and the now-Firefly-owned Disneyland didn't originally compete strongly with each other; one catered primarily to adult visitors while the other was a dreamland for children. However, the opening of the Titanic exhibition marked the official start of Firefly Group's expansion into a theme park aimed at visitors over eighteen.
Universal Studios boasted a rich history of over thirty years, but Firefly Group was clearly quite capable in the theme park operation realm, rivaling Universal's experience. Furthermore, the numerous blockbuster films that Firefly had developed in recent years would provide a wealth of themes to draw upon for further expansion, an advantage Universal couldn't match.
Rumors hinted that even a week prior to the opening, the limited two thousand tickets for the event had already sold out, along with most of the tickets for the following week. Clearly, this project was showing signs of a hot start even before it opened.
While the global box office for Titanic would gradually cool over the following months, it would likely be decent if Firefly Studios managed to attract two to three thousand visitors daily solely based on the exhibition. However, it was certain that the senior management at Firefly would capitalize on the success of the Titanic exhibition by expanding other film-themed projects to maintain visitor interest, making Firefly Studios a formidable competitor to Universal Studios.
Michael Eisner and the vice president in charge of theme park operations took a general stroll around the park and checked ticket booking statuses before the official opening at 8:30. Watching the throngs of visitors entering the studio, he relaxed a bit. Nevertheless, he quickly gathered the theme park management for an impromptu meeting to discuss developing new projects to respond to the competition from Firefly Studios.
...
This meeting ran until noon when Edgar Bronfman, the CEO of their parent company Seagram, called to arrange a lunch meeting at the studio restaurant.
Half an hour later, Edgar arrived, greeting Michael warmly with a hug as they walked into the restaurant together. After discussing the Titanic exhibit's opening, Edgar turned the conversation to movies. "So, how did Air Force One do on its opening day? I've been tied up with other matters this morning, and I haven't seen the box office report yet."
Air Force One was Universal's marquee summer film this year, starring Harrison Ford. Originally a Sony project, Universal seized the opportunity when Sony focused all their resources on Godzilla.
Michael felt a mix of excitement and anxiety about the film. Initially, he almost scheduled it against Bad Boys 2 and Ice Age on Independence Day, which could have resulted in Air Force One being overshadowed by Casino Royale, which had only been in theaters for a week.
"The opening day box office was nearly $12 million, and it should surpass $55 million in the first week," Michael said with a smile, adding, "There won't be any major releases in the coming weeks. Based on the buzz for Air Force One, it should have a long run -- hitting $150 million in North America should be a piece of cake."
Edgar nodded, satisfied with the news. With a production cost of $85 million, reaching $150 million at the box office in North America would cover its costs and lead to profitability.
However, remembering that Casino Royale's weekend box office was still over $52 million in its third week, Edgar's initial satisfaction waned. Despite arriving from Canada just yesterday, he was well aware of MGM's recent developments.
The thought of Eric Williams, who wielded tremendous influence behind the scenes without even stepping into the spotlight, filled Edgar with envy, and it was part of the reason he decided to come to Los Angeles.
Noticing the change in Edgar's expression, Michael immediately recognized his thoughts and felt his own mood drop.
This situation wasn't exactly something to be pleased about.
Compared to Sony and Warner's circumstances this year, Universal was indeed in a better position. But Michael was never one to compare himself to those in worse situations.
As a quintessential American blockbuster, even if Air Force One succeeded in North America, its overseas box office would likely not fare well. Even if it grossed $300 million worldwide, it would still fall short of Casino Royale's North American earnings -- not to mention comparing global numbers.
Reflecting on Casino Royale, which had generated an impressive $247 million in North America after only three weeks, he saw the overseas tickets were performing even better. Launched in 36 countries simultaneously during its first week, Casino Royale achieved $136 million internationally. Its second week showed a minimal dip of only 27%, collecting an additional $99.28 million, with last week's overseas box office totaling $68.5 million.
In just three weeks, Casino Royale had raked in $303 million overseas. With more widespread release coming in September, it was expected to effortlessly reach over $450 million internationally, likely establishing it as Eric Williams' second consecutive film to surpass $1 billion at the global box office.
$1 billion.
In contrast, Air Force One seemed quite insignificant.
Taking a sip of the soda brought by the waiter, Michael set aside those disheartening thoughts and turned to Edgar. "Ed, do you remember we're working on The Scorpion King, the special effects movie stemming from The Mummy series?"
"Of course," Edgar nodded. "What's the issue?"
"No issue," Michael replied, shaking his head. "I've been pondering for several weeks. Since MGM could create a spy movie universe, perhaps we could develop a Mummy universe centered around Egyptian mythology?"
Edgar paused before nodding vigorously. "That's a great idea; why not? By the way, do you have a detailed plan yet?"
"Not entirely sorted out, but it's coming together," Michael replied somewhat vaguely.
In truth, he had a relatively solid plan in mind; implementing it, however, was another story.
The primary issue remained the cast. After the success of the two Mummy films, all the leads demanded significant pay raises. The two principal actors had even come together to request $20 million each, plus profit sharing -- a price Universal found difficult to swallow -- leaving negotiations for the third film at a standstill.
The Mummy series had been one of the few projects yielding steady and substantial profits for Universal in recent years. Michael felt he certainly lacked the boldness Eric had, as evidenced by his split with Pierce Brosnan. Hence, the matter remained unresolved.
Edgar, unaware of Michael's obstacles, grew more determined that the plan could work. "I'll be in Los Angeles for a while. Let's find some time to discuss it."
Michael nodded, curious, "Are you up to something important while you're in LA?"
"Yes, I just met with Doug Morris this morning. Speaking of which, maybe you could share your thoughts on this."
Doug Morris was the CEO of Universal Records, and Michael engaged with him regularly. "About the record company?"
"Exactly..."
Just then, the waiter brought their lunch. Edgar paused briefly until the waiter left before continuing, "I intend to increase Seagram's media business weight. Recently, I heard that Philips intends to sell Polygram Records, and I believe this might be an excellent opportunity for further expanding Seagram's record business."
Michael, who had been ready to dig in, raised an eyebrow slightly at Edgar's remark, setting down his utensils. "Ed, I don't think this is a good idea. Surely, you've heard of Firefly Electronics' Fireflyer player by now? Everyone's discussing how digital music might impact physical record sales. If this trend holds, purchasing Polygram now would mean overpaying for a major liability."
"I don't see it that way," Edgar replied, shaking his head with a smile. "Michael, I probably know more about this than you do. Over the decades -- from vinyl records to cassette players to CDs -- there have always been claims that each new format would threaten record sales, but that has never occurred. The music industry overall remains robust. The recent rumors stem from Japanese electronics manufacturers concerned that the Fireflyer would affect their position in the traditional portable player market; that's why we're hearing such alarmist talk."
Michael, not particularly knowledgeable about the record industry, listened as Edgar spoke confidently. Realizing Edgar had made up his mind, Michael considered whether to press further but finally mentioned, "If Polygram is looking for a buyer, Firefly Group might be a better fit. They must promote the Fireflyer player, and without sufficient music rights, they won't get far. So, Edgar, maybe you can wait a bit. If Firefly Group shows no interest, then Seagram should proceed cautiously."
"Speaking of which," Edgar leaned in, glancing around as if to ensure no one was listening, whispering conspiratorially, "I caught wind of some news: Williams met with Polygram during his last trip to the UK. While there hasn't been any coverage, you know if the media picks up on it, Firefly is likely already nearing an agreement with Philips, and we'd miss our opportunity."
Michael paused, his voice serious as he asked, "Ed, where did you hear that? Don't you fear this was a deliberate leak from Polygram?"
"Relax, I worked hard to dig this up; it certainly wasn't from Polygram. What I need to do now is reach an agreement with Philips before Firefly acts." Edgar couldn't help but smile smugly after he finished speaking.
Michael chuckled, going along with the moment. "So, how much do you estimate the purchase of Polygram will cost?"
"About $10 billion," Edgar replied. "I plan to divest our remaining beverage business -- oh, and you need to assist on your end. We'll issue about $5 billion in bonds, and that should cover it."
Seagram's total valuation was roughly $30 billion. Recent years of expansion meant media ventures, including Universal Pictures and Universal Records, made up over 70% of Seagram's total market value. Acquiring Polygram would almost entirely transform Seagram into a media conglomerate.
Yet, Michael was acutely aware that after acquiring Polygram, half of Seagram's holdings would be in the record business. Rolling out $5 billion in bonds would further inflate Seagram's debt ratio. If the record industry genuinely faced a decline due to the rise of digital music, the future would be indeed grim for Seagram.
*****
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