Bab 84: Chapter 84: Betting Big and Winning Big
When William's fiery gaze met Phillips', it sent shivers down Phillips' spine. After a moment of hesitation, Phillips quickly shouted, "Understood, Mr. Devonshire!" He turned and barked to the traders, "Sell short, quickly! Sell the futures, 3% margin, three-month contracts, $350 million, now, immediately!"
The traders snapped out of their shock and quickly began typing away at their keyboards.
"The Nasdaq is at 5047 points now! Someone just placed a big short order! Oh my God, the trading volume is increasing!" the analyst shouted.
William ordered loudly, "Sell short, quickly!" He knew that he wasn't the only one betting against the market. If he didn't act fast, he wouldn't be able to secure as many futures contracts as he needed.
William's heart raced. He knew his chance had come. While 80% of the market believed that the Nasdaq would continue to rise, the index had peaked at 5048 points and wouldn't go any higher.
Taking advantage of the market's bullish sentiment, now was the perfect time to short. Selling futures when the market was still optimistic would attract many buyers willing to bet against him. In futures trading, a successful transaction requires a counterparty. If William made money, someone else would lose, especially in short selling, where the losses could be catastrophic.
In times of market frenzy, it was the best moment to trade futures. Otherwise, when investors, institutions, and funds were cautious, William wouldn't be able to sell such a large amount of futures contracts.
Using a 3% margin meant leveraging his $350 million to control a position worth $11.66 billion. With a leverage ratio of 33.3 times, he sold 9,760 contracts at 5048 points. Since each Nasdaq contract was valued at $250 per point, a one-point move would translate to a $2.44 million gain or loss for William.
William wasn't worried about the Nasdaq rising because, including the $33 million he had previously earned, he still had $82 million in funds available to cover any margin calls. As long as the Nasdaq didn't rise by 40 points, he wouldn't be forced to close his position.
In early 2000, those shorting the market had an edge because there was no more money to prop up the stock market. The likelihood of a significant, rapid increase in stock prices within a few days—or even hours—was low. Any minor disturbance could shake investors' confidence.
Eighty percent of the money in the market was borrowed, with even government institutions, funds, and ordinary investors heavily involved in the bubble. The market value of American stocks had already exceeded their actual value by three to four times. This market was like a sandcastle, vulnerable to even a slight breeze.
"Deal done! 500 contracts sold to France!"
"800 contracts to England!"
"300 to the USA!"
"200 to the USA!"
The trading hall of the National Bank was filled with the sounds of traders successfully selling futures contracts. Institutions and financial companies from the USA, France, and England were buying the contracts William was selling, all betting that the Nasdaq would rise.
"How many buyers from Japan? Focus on the Japanese buyers," William directed.
"Understood."
William suddenly realized that if he was going to make a significant impact in the European and American markets, he couldn't dump too many contracts on them. If these countries lost too much, they might directly target him. But Japan was different; he had no plans to invest or do business there in the future. If he made his profits and invested heavily in the USA and England afterward, they wouldn't hold it against him, and England might even support him after the crash due to his large investments.
"350 contracts to Japan!"
"900 to Japan!"
"300," "720," "500," "600,"
"A thousand contracts to Japan! Wow, these guys have deep pockets!"
Within two hours, William had sold 4,370 contracts to Japanese buyers.
"Keep selling to Japan."
"Understood."
Another hour passed, and William managed to sell nearly 2,000 more contracts to Japan before the demand dried up. It seemed some buyers had realized what was happening. The sudden surge in short orders had made some institutions cautious.
"We're hitting a wall, Mr. Devonshire. We can't sell anymore to Japan. What do we do now?" a trader shouted.
William quickly assessed the situation. He still had 1,590 contracts to sell. "Sell to anyone who wants to buy. Just get rid of them all."
By 2:30 PM, all 9,760 contracts at 5048 points had been sold. William laughed heartily as he reviewed the trade confirmations. "Alright, folks, the work is done for today. No need to watch the market anymore. Let's go celebrate!"
Unlike William, who had the advantage of knowing the future, the others were visibly concerned. Phillips hesitated, wanting to suggest they stay and monitor the market.
Noticing Phillips' unease, William reassured him, "It's okay, guys. The contracts are set. Now, everything is in God's hands. Phillips, I've always been lucky. I believe God will bless me."
Confident as always, William patted Phillips on the shoulder and laughed.
William knew that unless the top officials, Benjamin Arthur in the USA and Astor in England, deviated from their expected announcement three days from now regarding biotech companies and their cloning technologies, he would be fine. If they did, he was prepared to take an $80 million loss to protect his $350 million principal by closing his positions.
Now, all he could do was pray and hope for the best. The difference between being moderately rich and wildly wealthy depended on the next few days.
True to his expectations, luck was on William's side. Three days later, on Friday, before the US market opened, both Benjamin Arthur and Astor made the expected announcement. They demanded that biotech companies in their countries break their monopolies on cloning technology, collaborate, and develop together, while explicitly banning human cloning.
This announcement immediately impacted the stock market. Biotech stocks began to tremble.
As soon as the market opened, biotech stocks in the US started to decline. Though the drop wasn't massive that day, the market and media were flooded with bearish sentiments over the weekend.
While biotech and tech companies were unrelated, many biotech companies had been riding the tech bubble. In 1999 and 2000, any company linked to tech was overhyped. With the joint announcement from the US and UK governments, institutions, funds, and financial companies began offloading biotech stocks.
As these large players moved, individual investors quickly followed. By Monday, March 13, the market opened with a sharp drop in biotech stocks, dragging down the entire tech sector and causing the Nasdaq to plummet just as it had in William's previous life.
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