Capítulo 395: Chapter 395: The Start of a New Year
At the start of the new year, as two acquisition deals were finalized, the Westeros system began to make a serious push in the internet domain.
After meticulous preparation, America Online launched a free trial internet program on January 1, 1991.
All users under the Bell Pacific, Bell Atlantic, and NYNEX telecommunications operators on the east and west coasts of America could install access to the World Wide Web platform for free by appointment and receive three hours of free usage daily for one month.
By December 31, 1990, the final number of end-users for America Online was set at 820,000, with the total number of internet users accessing the World Wide Web platform in North America reaching 1.16 million.
Based on the growth rate of World Wide Web users over the previous months, the America Online team predicted that the free trial plan would attract at least 1 million free trial users each month for the next three months.
With a budget of $100 per user for access equipment and network browsing, America Online would invest $100 million monthly, not counting investments in human resources and basic equipment needed to support the increase in users.
All in all, the three-month free trial plan would cost America Online at least $400 million.
In comparison, America Online's total revenue for the entire year of 1990 had barely broken $100 million.
Thus, the most critical aspect of this ambitious and aggressive business plan was actually the funding issue.
Last year, Simon had already agreed to the IPO plans for America Online and Cisco. However, due to the stock market's continued downturn caused by the outbreak of the Gulf War in the latter half of the year, the IPO plans for both companies had been delayed. This free trial could be seen as America Online's final push before the IPO.
The other minor shareholders, who held 25% of America Online, were unwilling to have their shares further diluted by Westeros Corporation, and Simon did not force the issue. The funding for this initiative was obtained through a loan from Citibank via Westeros Corporation's connections.
After the three-month free trial plan, regardless of the outcome of the plan and the macroeconomic environment, America Online would officially launch its IPO.
The pressure was immense for the other shareholders and management of America Online, but Simon was very confident about this plan and the trajectory of the American economy.
The target of 1 million trial users per month, totaling 3 million in three months, was actually very conservative.
Consider that in the fiscal year 1990, mainstream PC manufacturers like IBM, Apple, and Commodore had shipped a combined total of over 20 million units, with IBM-compatible machines alone reaching 16.8 million units. Additionally, the global PC user base had surpassed 100 million units in 1990.
As the world's most developed economy, the United States accounted for over 50% of both PC shipments and ownership rates.
Although PCs were primarily used for office work at this time, with office PCs making up a large portion of the market, a massive user base of personal computers, combined with America Online's operation in some of the most economically developed states on the US east and west coasts, made 3 million trial users in three months a very achievable number.
If 20% to 30% of these trial users converted to regular users, America Online's free trial plan would be considered a success.
After the first quarter, as long as user growth met expectations, America Online could ensure at least $500 million in revenue for the year, with actual revenue figures likely much higher due to user growth in the subsequent three quarters. Compared to last year's growth of over 500%, such a development pace would secure America Online a very favorable IPO valuation.
Post-IPO, America Online would be able to raise funds more flexibly from the public market through securities issuance or additional stock offerings.
On another front, Igraine also began to make its mark in the content domain.
Peter Butler officially joined Igraine just a week into the new year and immediately flew to the Middle East to oversee comprehensive reporting on the Gulf War.
Igraine also launched a 'Everyone Can Be a Novelist' prize-winning creative activity on its column blog section.
Web novels, a literary genre well-known to later generations, actually appeared earlier than many might think. Just like online games, Quantum Online, the predecessor to America Online, had operated an 'online novel relay' service as early as the 1980s.
In the end, creativity was never in short supply.
However, Igraine's 'Everyone Can Be a Novelist' activity was still oriented towards traditional literary creation, with a timeline of three months.
After registering on the Igraine portal website and applying through the blog operations team, users could participate in the event and start their online creations. The genre was limited to novels, but there were no restrictions on the type—science fiction, horror, mystery, etc., were all acceptable. The
rule was to submit an update at least once a week, and Igraine website users would select the final winners through online voting.
The event would award one first prize of $500,000, ten second prizes of $100,000 each, and a hundred third prizes of $10,000 each. Additionally, these user-created works might have the opportunity to be published in print and signed by Daenerys Entertainment for film and TV adaptations.
With a total prize pool of $2.5 million, plus opportunities for publishing and screen adaptations, the event immediately garnered intense interest among Igraine users.
After all, most ordinary people harbor some dreams of creation, but various conditions typically hinder their realization.
Igraine's online event not only provided a platform with very low barriers to entry but also offered substantial prizes to stimulate user engagement.
For Igraine, such an event served multiple purposes: fulfilling Simon's long-emphasized goal of user-generated content, enhancing the interactivity of Igraine's social network, and further developing its advertising business through sponsorships from corporations like IBM—a win on multiple fronts.
For this event, the Igraine team specially developed a voting system, similar to the 'like' function later common on the internet. Only users registered via Igraine's portal email could vote, and to prevent multiple voting, voters needed to link their America Online accounts, with only one vote allowed per day.
Meanwhile, in Hollywood, the successful acquisition agreement with MCA had been reached, and the first box office week of the new year quickly passed.
From January 4 to January 10, "Home Alone's" third week saw a 34% drop in box office due to the return to workdays, earning $31.28 million.
Although the weekly box office slid from $47.99 million to $31.28 million, the drop was actually quite remarkable. Many hit films of the era didn't manage to surpass $30 million in their opening week, showcasing the phenomenal success of "Home Alone."
In three weeks, "Home Alone" accumulated a North American total box office of $111.9 million, easily entering the top ten of the 1990 North American box office chart.
However, this outstanding box office momentum had to face the looming shadow of war.
As the January 15 deadline set by the United Nations for Iraq to withdraw its troops drew closer, Saddam Hussein showed no signs of compliance. It's worth mentioning that the 'firm stance' of the U.S. government played a crucial role during this period.
All of Iraq's conditional withdrawal proposals were rejected by the U.S. government.
On January 12, the U.S. Senate formally approved the 'Authorization for Use of Military Force Against Iraq Resolution.'
Dark clouds loomed over the city.
In the month leading up to the war, the U.S. stock market continued to fall by 6% under the shadow of war, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average at one point falling back within 300 points, worse than before the 1987 stock market crash.
After closing the books at the end of 1990, Cersei Capital quickly raised a new $3 billion hedge fund, maintaining the same scale going forward.
Although Simon had transferred over $8 billion in cash back to the U.S. last year, thanks to continuous gains in the second half of the year, the funds belonging to Simon in the Cersei Fund Management Company account still reached $700 million, with the Johnston family also retaining $500 million in the hedge fund.
Before the outbreak of the war, while most investors were pessimistic about the prospects of the Gulf War, the team at Cersei Fund Management Company began to bet again on the crude oil futures market and North American stock index futures market.
The crude oil futures market, still reeling from last year's impact of the Kuwait War, could only establish a few positions.
This time, the main betting target was the S&P 500 index futures.
In Simon's memory, under the overwhelming victory of the multinational forces led by the U.S. in the Gulf War, the S&P 500 index rose by over 20% within a month of the war's outbreak.
Moreover, due to pessimism about the war's prospects, most speculators in the actively traded S&P 500 index futures market tended to short sell, allowing the team at Cersei Fund Management Company to easily establish a long position worth over $10 billion in just a few weeks.
Although Cersei Capital's hedge fund was not expected to contribute much to the Westeros system in the coming years, this time, due to Simon's unique foresight about the war situation, Cersei Capital could still reap substantial gains in the following months if everything followed historical trajectory.
Throughout 1991, Cersei Fund Management Company could easily outperform its Wall Street peers in terms of profits.
Not aiming to create miracles, just to surpass peers—this was Simon's performance requirement for Cersei Capital as it entered regular operations. This task might not be easy for other Wall Street
fund companies, but for Cersei Capital, leveraging Simon's prophetic advantage and an already excellent operational team, achieving this goal was not difficult.
Time would not pause for the stifling atmosphere of impending war.
On January 15, the final deadline, Saddam Hussein still had not implemented the UN's withdrawal agreement, prompting the U.S.-led multinational forces to begin authorizing war against Iraq, with the Iraqi army also prepared for confrontation.
At 2 AM local time on January 17, countless warplanes took off from U.S. aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf and military airbases in Saudi Arabia, swarming like bees towards pre-determined military targets across Iraq.
Many had expected the Iraqi Air Force to counterattack, but the multinational forces displayed an overwhelming superiority that completely incapacitated the Iraqi military.
Iraq's air defense systems were virtually ineffective against America's high-tech stealth bombers, and its outdated Scud missiles were no match for the U.S. military's latest precision-guided missiles, with the Iraqi Air Force being suppressed by the multinational forces before it could even respond.
In just one day of intense air raids, the multinational forces quickly achieved their first phase of strategic objectives, destroying Iraq's airbases and air defense facilities with guided missiles, cluster bombs, and air bombs.
The war's swift and overwhelming force shocked the world.
International oil markets.
As continuous updates on the war came in, the international oil prices, which had surged on the eve of the outbreak, held on for only two hours before starting to plummet drastically.
On January 16, the day before the war broke out, the international oil price was still as high as $26 per barrel. Just a few hours after the war started, it had already fallen to a low of $20 per barrel, essentially returning to the level before the outbreak of the Kuwait War.
Affected by the war's gloom, the North American movie market saw a noticeable decline in the week before the war's outbreak.
After a 34% drop in its third week, "Home Alone's" box office fell again by 29% in its fourth week from January 11 to January 17, sliding further to $22.21 million. The total box office for four weeks was $142.11 million.
As the war situation exceeded most people's expectations, although many were still distracted by the smoke-filled Gulf region, the North American movie market did not turn colder but began to rebound in the new week.
Before the war broke out, the organizers of the American Film and Television Golden Globe Awards were still hesitating whether to cancel the upcoming ceremony scheduled for January 19. However, with the war situation finally clarifying, the Golden Globe organizers soon announced that the ceremony would take place as planned at the Beverly Hills Hilton.
This year's Golden Globe nominations saw Daenerys Entertainment securing three spots for Best Picture in drama and comedy categories, with "Dances with Wolves" and "Intersection" nominated for Best Drama Picture, and "Ghost" for Best Musical or Comedy Picture.
In the original timeline, "Pretty Woman" and "Home Alone" also received nominations for Best Musical or Comedy Picture.
However, if Daenerys Entertainment had half of the 10 Best Picture nominations at the Golden Globes, it would have been too conspicuous. After weighing the options, Daenerys Entertainment ultimately only submitted "Dances with Wolves" and the other two films for Best Picture nominations.
"Dances with Wolves" was the primary focus, and its success was crucial. The other two, depending on the attitude of the Golden Globe organizers, whether they won or not, wouldn't make much of a difference.
All three films secured nominations.
Fortunately, all three films were genuinely deserving, so they did not provoke much controversy. However, some media personnel did raise objections to the absence of nominations for "Home Alone" and "Pretty Woman" in the Best Musical or Comedy Picture category from Daenerys Entertainment.
After several months of continuous work and the finalization of two acquisition deals, Simon was unable to relax.
The Westeros system, after its rapid growth in 1990, had accumulated too many issues unknowingly, and Simon dared not slack off to prevent irreversible complications.
Additionally, while delegating more authority to the management of various companies, Simon also tightened financial supervision over them. At the beginning of the year, as usual, it was time to conduct financial audits of the companies.
Despite a heavy daily workload, on January 19, Simon still made time in the evening to appear on the red carpet outside the Beverly Hills Hilton with Janet in formal attire.
After all, not only were "Dances with Wolves" and the other two films nominated for Best Picture, but Daenerys Entertainment's "Pretty Woman," "Home Alone," and "Desperate Hours," among others, also garnered numerous other award nominations.
Beyond movie awards, Daenerys Entertainment's reality shows and TV series had also secured a plethora of nominations across various television categories, all possessing strong potential for winning.
Therefore, before the awards ceremony began, Daenerys
Entertainment had already prepared a grand celebration party within the Malibu Daenerys Film City.
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