Capítulo 56: The power of semi-bluffing
"When you raise someone, you're testing their weight. Not just the weight of their wallet, but the weight of their heart."
——————
Players drew their guns, picked their barricades, and prepared for the shoot-off.
"Tournament start!" the staff member announced, and the dealers of death slid two cards of ammo to each gunslinger.
Due to the large in buy-in, this tournament had fewer entrants. There were 38 players spread amongst 4 tables. This shorter player pool was better for Joey. It meant fewer instances of players switching tables and fewer opponents to focus on. This would allow him to collect more information on each player and weaponize that data better.
Still, Joey wouldn't start slow. Since there were cash games as a backup, he preferred developing an early chip lead. His plan was to use the high aggression Tiger Style. He recognized some of the players from yesterday. For example, his opponent right now.
Joey was heads up against an old man with a big nose. Joey tried to steal preflop, and big nose defended the big blind by calling. The flop came [6♣ 7♣ J♥].
Big nose checked. Joey had [Q♥ 9♥], nothing, but he understood an important concept—aggression is king! In poker and in tournaments in particular, most competitors play the passive turtle style. They're hesitant to get involved without a decent hand. How often does a player have a decent hand? Not often!
Most of the time, players connect with little to none of the flop. It's common that in a heads up pot on the flop, neither player has a pair or better! In these scenarios, the player with higher aggression is usually the winner.
This is why continuation betting is so important. The person who raised preflop has the lead, and by c-betting again on the flop, they can often take down the pot right away. Of course, you can't c-bet every hand or you would be too predictable, but Joey knew firing on this flop was correct. This was his strategy!
Joey c-bet, but this hand wouldn't be so simple. Big nose insta-called.
The turn came: [6♣ 7♣ J♥ A♠]. An ace is a scare card in most situations. Most player's ranges preflop have many aces, making a sudden ace very dangerous. On this card, big nose donk bet out.
Joey looked at big nose and sneered in his head. It was a donk bet. If it was only that, Joey might still fold his garbage Q9. Although donk bets are often weak, it wasn't universal. He didn't want to end up in a setup hand like he played with Richard.
It was too early to make a big move with air and little certainty. Joey hadn't gotten a good read on big nose's state of mind yet. A player's style can change based on their mood. It was New Year's Eve. Maybe big nose had a fight with his wife that unsettled him. Maybe he drank a lot yesterday. Maybe he was still a little drunk now! Joey couldn't know everything at a glance. It took time.
Humans are volatile. Joey would have liked to confirm big nose was playing today like he did yesterday. Otherwise, his prior data on big nose could be invalid and lead him to make wrong decisions! Joey knew there was a time to make a move and a time to stay patient. Now would be the time to back off...if there weren't other factors involved.
Besides for the weakness of the donk bet, there were several things pushing Joey to raise. One was a physical tell—the quick flop call.
In Joey's eyes, big nose's swift flop insta-call was a tell that indicated he had a weak/marginal hand. It's like big nose trying to shout, 'I have a good hand! Don't try to push me off! Don't bet again! I'll call!' If he was shouting that, the truth was most likely the opposite—he couldn't call another bet!
Also, Joey knew big nose's betting patterns. Big nose was telling him a story in this hand--the ace hit him and so he was betting. There were two problems with this story.
First, There was a plot hole! When big nose called on the flop, there weren't many hands with an ace in his range that would bet this turn. If the turn ace gave him a pair of aces with a flush draw, he would check the turn. If he had a powerful hand of two pair or better, he would also check the turn because the ace was a card that would often hit Joey, which would encourage Joey to c-bet again.
Second, Joey already read this story! Yesterday when Joey played with big nose, he saw him take a similar betting line by donking the turn several times. In those hands, he showed down marginal hands like low pairs. It was a classic donk bet, one that Joey was even more confident was weak because of his prior hand reading. Since Joey knew the ending, he didn't need to stick around to the end of the movie. "I raise," he said.
Big nose didn't even bother waiting. He folded his cards into the muck right away. He couldn't call even a small raise.
Joey was off to a good start. Since he gathered momentum, there was no reason to stop steamrolling his enemies.
"Raise!"
"Raise!"
Joey pushed the table around with aggression.
This time a player to his right raised preflop, and Joey 3-bet reraised on the button with [K♥ Q♥].
The flop came [2♥ 2♦ 5♥]. Joey flopped a flush draw. The opponent checked and Joey c-bet his draw.
The opponent contemplated a while then put in a decent-sized check/raise.
Joey considered his opponent's range. There were almost no 2s he could have and the only full house was pocket 5s, so he being up against a monster didn't concern Joey. He put the opponent on an overpair between 6s and jacks. In that case, this was an opportune moment for Joey to make a move.
Joey believed there was a high chance the opponent would fold to an all-in. Joey could have many higher pocket pairs and it was a dryish flop with the only real draw being a flush draw, making semi-bluffs uncommon. Furthermore, Joey had a great semi-bluffing hand, he had a flush draw and he might still win if he hit a king or queen. Even if behind, he wasn't in bad shape.
"I raise…all-in," Joey declared.
The opponent struggled over his decision for a minute.
Joey sat there with indifference. Since the opponent took so long, he knew the opponent couldn't have stronger than jacks. In that case, his odds were good. Joey preferred a fold but it wouldn't bother him much if the opponent called either. That was the power of a semi-bluff with a strong draw.
In the end, the opponent sighed and folded.
Another steal for Joey!
The tournament continued in a one-sided manner. Opponents were fearful of his momentum.
Joey was now in a three-way pot with big nose and another player. Joey raised preflop with [A♦ Q♦], big nose 3-bet reraised from the button, and the big blind and Joey both called.
The flop came [K♥ 2♦ 9♦]. Joey once again caught a flush draw and overcards. The big blind checked and it was up to Joey. Joey checked to see what big nose did. Big nose c-bet a pot-sized bet. Big blind thought a few seconds and called. The action was on Joey.
The pot was large now. Joey wasn't sure how strong big nose was. He didn't pick up any physical tells. That's how it goes; Sometimes a player gives you tells, sometimes he gives you nothing. Joey also didn't read into the fact that there was no tell because tells can present themselves in sporadic fashion. The lack of a tell wasn't firm evidence of anything.
Joey considered his options. 'I have a good semi-bluffing hand with the nut flush draw. There's also a chance an ace could give me the win. I'm not sure how strong big nose is, but the big blind feels weak. Big blind probably has a middling hand like a pair of tens. There's a high chance at least he'll fold to a check/raise…'
Joey continued, 'Well I can't fold this big hand here. So it's either a call or a raise. In that case... a semi-bluff raise is better since I might win the pot right now.'
"I raise," Joey announced. "All-in."
The big blind folded out of turn. Joey would've valued that information had it not helped his opponent this time. Big nose now knew that if he called, he didn't have to worry about the big blind slowplaying behind him. After thinking for a while, big nose struggled and made a crying call.
Joey knew he was behind, but he still held a good draw so he flipped his hand over showing the [A♦ Q♦]. Big nose flipped over [J♥ J♦]. It was a great call by him. This made Joey reflect on a few things.
It's tougher to take down a pot bluffing multiple players than heads up. With each extra player, the odds of getting them all to fold decreases exponentially. That's why it's good to bluff heads up or sometimes against two opponents, but against 3 or more? You'd be playing with fire. Proceed with caution.
Also, Joey didn't have a monopoly on playing well. Nor could he force his opponents to always play poorly. This was the nature of poker. Nothing was certain.
If Joey lost, it would be bad. Although big nose was the one all in because Joey had more chips, a loss would wipe out 2/3 of Joey's chips, leaving him as a short stack. Now it was down to lady luck. The dealer dealt the turn as both players stared at the board.
This hand was for their tournament lives.
[K♥ 2♦ 9♦ 5♠]. A blank. Joey missed one of his two opportunities to catch a card he needed. He still had one chance but his odds went down by half. Would he manage a come from behind victory? Or would this hand cripple him?
Big nose chewed his nails.
Joey clenched his fists.
The dealer dealt out the last card…
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