The Christmas story has elements that are likely based on historical facts. Bethlehem was a real town, and there was a census system during that time as mentioned in the story. But when it comes to the supernatural elements such as angels and the star leading the wise men, these are part of the religious narrative. Overall, the story is a combination of historical context and religious doctrine, and different people may view the degree of historical basis differently depending on their beliefs.
It's a bit of a mix. There are elements in the Christmas story that are consistent with historical knowledge of the region and era. For instance, the Roman occupation at that time is a historical fact. But the more miraculous parts, like the virgin birth, are matters of religious belief. So, while there are historical underpinnings, the full story also contains elements that are more about faith.